The Strengthening Link Between Donald Trump's Online Attention and Wall Street Sentiment

Abstract

The influence of Donald Trump on media and public discourse has been a topic of extensive analysis. His unparalleled communication skills and ability to dominate online attention raise questions about the potential market implications of his media presence. This study examines weekly data from 2020 to 2025 to test the relationship between online search interest in Trump, measured by Google Trends, and bullish sentiment from the American Association of Individual Investors survey. Ordinary least squares and Granger causality analyses reveal that increases in Trump-related search activity not only coincide with but also precede rises in investor optimism. The effect strengthens markedly in the post-2024 U.S. election period, where the explanatory power of Trump-related attention is significantly higher. These findings demonstrate that Trump's sustained media prominence continues to shape market psychology beyond formal policymaking, establishing political attention as a causal driver of investor sentiment. The results contribute to behavioral finance by showing how digital attention metrics capture the psychological transmission of political influence to financial markets.