Short-term wind power forecasting integrating wake effect modeling with variational mode decomposition enhanced deep learning architectures

Abstract

This work presents a robust hybrid framework for short-term wind power forecasting, validated on the GECAMA wind farm in Spain, which comprises 69 turbines and has a nominal capacity exceeding 300 MW. The proposed approach combines three established physics-based wake models (Jensen, Bastankhah, Larsen) with five deep learning methods, further enhanced by input preprocessing via variational mode decomposition. Hourly energy production is forecasted using wind data from ECMWF, AROME, and ICON EU meteorological databases. Including wake models as input features helps reduce bias from meteorological signals by accounting for available wind turbines and physical effects, such as wake interactions and terrain. Adding previous forecast errors as features further boosts short-term accuracy. The hybrid models achieve error reductions of 40%–50% for one-hour-ahead forecasts, tapering to 1%–10% by 24 h. With variational mode decomposition (VMD), improvements reach 74%–77% for 3–6 h horizons and about 8% at 36 h. Across all horizons, VMD-enhanced models consistently outperform both standard hybrids and pure physical models. These results show that integrating wake modeling, deep learning, and advanced preprocessing is a practical way to improve wind power forecasts and support reliable electricity market decisions.