HOW DO RISING INTEREST RATES AFFECT EXPORTS?

Abstract

This study examines how rising interest rates affect export performance across eight Spanish economic sectors during the period 2010¿2023. Using a fixed-effects panel regression, the analysis evaluates the impact of the ECB Main Refinancing Rate (MRR) on sectoral exports while controlling for the real effective exchange rate (REER) and trading partner GDP growth. The results suggest that exchange rate competitiveness and external demand play a significant role in explaining export performance, while the positive relationship observed between interest rates and exports appears to reflect the macroeconomic characteristics of the sample period rather than a direct credit channel effect.