Examinando por Autor "Bernal, Francisco"

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Forecasting and assessing consequences of aviation safety occurrences
(Elsevier, 2019-01) Rios Insua, David; Alfaro, Cesar; Gomez, Javier; Hernandez-Coronado, Pablo; Bernal, Francisco
Aviation safety is essential for the healthy growth and sustainability of the global economy. The implementation of Safety Management Systems to support safe service delivery has become one of the most important goals within the airline industry over the last years. However, in most cases the involved organisations use unsophisticated methods based on risk matrices for the development of such systems. In this paper, we present models to forecast and assess the consequences of aviation safety occurrences as part of a framework for aviation safety risk management at state level.
Safer skies over Spain
(Institute for Operations Research and Management Sciences, 2020-01-24) Elvira, Veronica; Bernal, Francisco; Hernandez-Coronado, Pablo; Herraiz, Esperanza; Alfaro, Cesar; Gomez, Javier; Rios Insua, David
Agencia Estatal de Seguridad Aerea, the Spanish aviation safety and security agency, applied an innovative risk-analysis methodology and decision support system, developed in partnership with the Spanish Royal Academy of Sciences, to improve Spain’s national aviation safety. The agency uses several analytics methods to forecast the likelihood and impact of various types of safety occurrences. This enables management to focus attention and resources where they will be most effective. For example, a nonlinear optimization model allocates inspection resources. The result has been a major improvement in aviation safety, which led to reductions in aircraft repairs, maintenance, delays, and expenses. The agency estimated annual savings to be about 800 million euros in equivalent safety costs.