Examinando por Autor "Mauleón, Ignacio"

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Friends or foes? Exploring the performance of incumbent energy providers and the expansion of renewable energy in five European countries
(Elsevier, 2021) Mauleón, Ignacio; García, María José
Societies at large are increasingly accepting the need for a transition to a lower-carbon energy system. How this transition is conducted and its final results, however, are matters of concern. In fact, there is already some available evidence based on qualitative and case-study research showing that, in some cases, costly and uncertain technologies are being promoted instead of cheaper small-scale alternatives. This research intends to shed some quantitative light on this issue by looking at the stock market performance of electric utilities in the major European economies and their behavior in the face of increasing renewable energy deployments. The main result is that their performance has not worsened due to those deployments, except for the photovoltaic energy, which shows a consistent and negative impact across all countries, with Spain's remarkable exception. This is due to this energy source's characteristics, particularly its scalability, unabated cost declines, and technical simplicity, paving the way for decentralized and distributed energy markets instead of the current unique and centralized distribution system. The paper also discusses the shortcomings of the creative-destruction paradigm when applied in this context, showing that even an active 'exnovation' policy might not be enough to ensure this outcome. An active political stance supporting the appropriate kind of regulation to enable the right environment for these efficient developments to be realized is therefore required.
Optimising the spatial allocation of photovoltaic investments: Application to the Spanish case
(Elsevier, 2023) Mauleón, Ignacio
After a period of stagnation that lasted until approximately 2018, Spain has established an ambitious investment program in photovoltaics, derived from the pledge to switch to a carbon-free energy system by 2050, the sustained cost decreases of the technology, and the excellent irradiance values over its territory. This paper implements an additional criterion for the spatial allocation of these investments based on minimising the energy variability generated because of weather intermittency. The analysis is based on hourly data for the years 2005–2020 (inclusive), in various locations homogeneously spread throughout Spain. Subtracting the deterministic daily and annual irradiance cycles to estimate the variability of the random component is discussed. Failing to do that yields significantly higher and distorted values for solar energy variability, resulting in low investment proportions when combined with other energies, like wind. The first results show that a straightforward, equally-weighted allocation of investments is suboptimal. It is also shown that investing in low-irradiance locations contributes to reducing overall variability. Secondly, the study analyses overall power variability minimisation conditional on a given wind investment weight. It is found that the impact is significant spatially, and that proportions of wind energy above 10% increase aggregated variability across all levels of aggregated power generated. Nevertheless, investment proportions in wind energy below 10% reduce the overall combined variability significantly due to the negative correlation between wind and solar irradiation. The third point addressed is the minimisation of the mismatches between renewable energy supply and aggregate electricity demand. The optimal proportion for solar and wind investments becomes close to 50% in this case. However, this proportion tilts towards solar investments if variability minimisation is also considered. Finally, the current spatial distribution of photovoltaic investments in Spain is analysed, and it is shown that there is room for improvement. It is also found that the current ratio between wind and photovoltaic energy may not be optimal, and that it would be advisable to increase proportionally more photovoltaic energy.
Photovoltaic and wind cost decrease estimation: Implications for investment analysis
(Energy, 2017-03-31) Mauleón, Ignacio; Hamoudi, Hamid
This research intends to contribute to the analysis of planned and forecast future paths of renewable energy capacity deployments - mainly wind and solar photovoltaic. The paths forecast by the International Energy Agency as published in its roadmaps are considered. The learning rate of both energies, or 'learning by doing', that implies cost decreases as a result of capacity deployment is explicitly considered, as well as its variability. New values for both wind and photovoltaic learning rates are estimated and presented, that allow a significant simulation analysis. The implied uncertainty by that variability induces risks for the financial planning of investments, and a framework to assess and manage that risk is presented and implemented in the simulations conducted. It is shown that this parameter-variability is significant and yields less favorable results as compared to standard static-fixed parameter simulations. Alternative investment paths are considered, the results showing that a faster path does not necessarily result in a significant increase in the accumulated final investment. Thus, accelerated deployment paths are advised to fight climate change.