Examinando por Autor "Paule-Vianez, Jessica"

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A bibliometric analysis of behavioural finance with mapping analysis tools
(Elsevier, 2020) Paule-Vianez, Jessica; Gómez-Martínez, Raúl; Prado-Román, Camilo
Market efficiency has been questioned since behavioural finance emerged. However, there is no theory consolidating both irrational investors' behaviour and their influence on financial markets. In this paper,we use bibliometrics to gain better knowledge of the current situation and trends in this research area.The results obtained by analysing the 1987–2017 period show a growth potential of Behavioural Finance. Investor sentiment is the main subject among the thirteen main subjects of this area.
A practical fundraising toolkit to raise funds
(Springer Nature, 2023-06-23) Coronel-Pangol, Katherine; Orden-Cruz, Carmen; Paule-Vianez, Jessica
This chapter aims to provide a practical guide to facilitate the process of seeking financing for entrepreneurs. The aim is to highlight some common mistakes entrepreneurs make in their search for funding and some alternatives or guidelines to make this journey less complicated. In general, an entrepreneur must convince an investor of their project’s growth potential with persuasive business arguments. However, not all types of financing are suitable for every project, and so it is important to have a solid understanding of the project, the environment in which it operates, and its current growth stage. Finally, two case studies are presented to illustrate a successful outcome and one that was a failure.
Bayesian networks to predict financial distress in Spanish banking
(ASEPUMA, 2019) Paule-Vianez, Jessica; Arias-Nicolás, José Pablo; Coca-Pérez, José Luis
This paper develops a short-term predictive model of nancial distress in Spanish banking system with Bayesian networks. As bank failures have been scarce, this document has also considered other nancial problems, encompassed under the term nancial distress, such as non-compliance with its obligations, the need for intervention by external agencies, state aid, mergers and acquisitions with problems, and liquidations. The variables used to predict nancial distress in the Spanish banking system have been nancial variables, classi ed according to the CAMELS rating system, and economic variables, whose impact on the health of these entities has been demonstrated by several previous studies. With a sample of 148 banking institutions, the high success rate obtained shows that the Bayesian networks constitute a promising methodology for predicting short-term nancial distress in the Spanish banking sector.
Bibliometric analysis of alternative financing for entrepreneurship
(UPv EHU, 2022) Coronel-Pangol, Katherine; Orden-Cruz, Carmen; Paule-Vianez, Jessica
One of the main limitations of entrepreneurship is access to finance, especially in the early stages. Over the years, new sources of finance have evolved to respond to this need and provide new options for entrepreneurs. Using a bibliometric analysis, this paper examines the evolution of the academic literature and analyses the relationship between entrepreneurship and alternative financing over three periods of time (1975-1999, 2000-2010, and 2011-2020). This work aims to provide a clearer view of the evolution of this relationship and identifies current trends and future lines of research. The data were obtained from the Web of Science (WOS) database and systematized using SciMAT software. Results show that venture capital and business angels have become the main financing sources for entrepreneurs, being the most studied from different approaches, especially since 2000. Incubators in universities and research centers, corporate governance, and development of this type of financing in emerging countries are emerging as potential areas for further research in this field.
Conventional or alternative financing to promote entrepreneurship? An analysis of female and male entrepreneurship in developed and developing countries
(Springer, 2023-10-14) Coronel-Pangol, Katherine; Paule-Vianez, Jessica; Orden-Cruz, Carmen
One of the main concerns of entrepreneurs is obtaining finance to launch their projects. In this sense, this study aims to analyse the relationship between entrepreneurship and different sources of finance, considering the type of entrepreneurship, gender, and the country. To achieve this purpose, entrepreneurship has been distinguished by gender and type of entrepreneurship (necessity and opportunity entrepreneurship), using data from the Global Entrepreneurship Monitor (GEM) as a reference. Sources of finance were divided into conventional (bank) financing and alternative financing (microfinance and cooperatives). Countries were divided into developed and developing countries according to the classification proposed by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). We worked with 66 countries (17 developed and 49 developing) for which information was obtained for 2007–2019. Using fixed effect panel data models, the results show how microfinance and cooperativism have a positive impact, especially on female entrepreneurship by opportunity in developing countries. In the case of cooperativism, there is a direct and clear relationship between female entrepreneurship, regardless of whether driven by necessity or opportunity, and region. Conventional financing is generally unfavourable to female entrepreneurship but favours male opportunity entrepreneurship. This paper makes recommendations to authorities to create an appropriate framework to encourage these sources of finance for entrepreneurship, given their particular positive impact and benefit in developing regions.
Disclosure of gender policies: do they affect business performance?
(Elsevier, 2022-01-14) Escamilla-Solano, Sandra; Paule-Vianez, Jessica; Blanco-González, Alicia
Disclosure of gender equality policies and their effect on business profitability is a relevant area of research due to the existence of a gap in the academic literature and the need to decrease the gender gap in companies (5th Sustainable Development Goal of the United Nations). To demonstrate the effect of disclosure of gender policies on business profitability, this study analyses the Social Responsibility Reports of 91 companies listed on the Spanish stock exchange for the period 2016–2018. Information on gender equality policies is extracted by using the content analysis technique. A positive association between disclosure of gender equality policies and the accounting profitability obtained by companies is confirmed by applying a panel data approach. Therefore, this research confirms that it is not only necessary to reduce inequalities, but it also has positive financial effects for companies and is a source of competitive advantage. The findings obtained have significant implications for business management.
Economic policy uncertainty and Bitcoin. Is Bitcoin a safe-haven asset?
(Emerald Publishing Limited, 2020) Paule-Vianez, Jessica; Prado-Román, Camilo; Gómez-Martínez, Raúl
Purpose – The goal of this work is to determine whether Bitcoin behaves as a safe-haven asset. In order to do so, the influence of Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) on Bitcoin returns and volatility was studied. Design/methodology/approach – It is evaluated whether, when compared with the evolution of EPU, Bitcoin’s returns and volatility show behaviours typical of safe havens or rather, those of conventional speculative assets. When faced with an increase in EPU, safe havens – such as gold – can be expected to increase their returns and volatility, while conventional speculative assets will increase their volatility and reduce their returns. This study uses simple linear regression and quantile regression models on a daily data sample from 19 July 2010 to 11 April 2019, to analyse the influence of EPU on the returns and volatility of Bitcoin and gold. Findings – Bitcoin’s returns and volatility increase during more uncertain times, just like gold, showing that Bitcoin acts not only as a means of exchange but also shows characteristics of investment assets, specifically of safe havens. These findings provide useful information to investors by allowing Bitcoin to be considered as a tool to protect savings in times of economic uncertainty and to diversify portfolios. Originality/value – This study complements and expands current research by aiming to answer the question of whether Bitcoin is a simple speculative asset or a safe haven. The most significant contribution is to show that Bitcoin is not a mere speculative asset but behaves like a safe haven.
Efecto de la incertidumbre de política económica en los mercados bursátiles europeos
(uhu.es Publicaciones, 2021) Paule-Vianez, Jessica; Prado-Román, Camilo; Gómez-Martínez, Raúl
Este estudio evalúa el efecto de la Incertidumbre de Política Económica (IPE) en la rentabilidad, volatilidad y liquidez de los mercados bursátiles europeos. Aplicando datos de panel sobre una muestra de países europeos para el periodo 09-2011 a 07-2020 se encuentra que IPE reduce la rentabilidad e incrementa la volatilidad de los mercados bursátiles europeos, no encontrándose resultados concluyentes respecto a la liquidez. Estos resultados ponen de manifiesto la importancia y necesidad de un mayor control por parte de los formuladores de políticas económicas sobre la transparencia y la estabilidad de sus decisiones.
Effect of Economic Policy Uncertainty on the investment in numismatic assets: Evidence for the Walking Liberty Half Dollar
(Elsevier, 2021) Paule-Vianez, Jessica; Alcázar-Blanco, Antonio; Coca-Pérez, José Luis
This study proposes to analyse the numismatic assets investment under Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU). By applying a panel data approach to a sample of 25 different coins minted between 1916 and 1947 and valued annually from 2000 to 2019, it is shown that investing in the Walking Liberty Half Dollar can be considered a safe-haven asset when faced with EPU. However, of all the coins, only those minted during the Great Crash of 1929 and Second World War fulfil this characteristic. These findings have significant implications for investors, providing them with an attractive alternative investment in times of high EPU.
Effect of the Disclosure of Corporate Social Responsibility on Business Profitability. A Dimensional Analysis in the Spanish Stock Market
(MDPI, 2019) Escamilla-Solano, Sandra; Fernández-Portillo, Antonio; Paule-Vianez, Jessica; Plaza-Casado, Paola
In recent decades, the novel fact of considering corporate social responsibility (CSR) as part of the corporate strategy of companies has resulted in interest groups demanding the disclosure of such information. Likewise, considering their importance of transparency and governance today, it is necessary to make an approximation on the study of the divulgation of CSR information on companies listed on the Spanish stock market. The aim of this work is to determine whether the disclosure of the measures taken by the companies on CSR influences business profitability. Applying PLS-SEM on the information extracted from the sustainability reports of 103 companies listed on the Spanish continuous market, it is found that the disclosure of CSR measures improves business profitability in its social and economic dimensions, with no e ect being found between the disclosure CSR in its environmental dimension on business profitability.
EPU and SMEs' financial performance: Industry vs. service sector
(Elsevier, 2024-09) Orden-Cruz, Carmen; Paule-Vianez, Jessica; Sánchez-Escobedo, Mari Cruz; Moutinho, Víctor
The objective of this paper is to analyze the Economic Policy Uncertainty impact on Small and Medium Enterprises’ financial performance, considering the role that sector plays and firm characteristics. Thus, a data sample of 80,620 Spanish SMEs was selected for 2012–2020. Using system Generalized Method of Moments estimators, the results show a negative impact, especially in the service sector. Industrial Spanish SMEs that are larger, younger, more indebted, with more growth opportunities and with higher asset turnover are the most resilient to EPU. The findings can help SMEs design better management strategies to deal with this uncertainty
Estimación del riesgo de reserva con Solvencia II: Distribución Libre de Mack vs Bootstrap con Simulación
(Grupo Editorial Espacios, 2019) Paule-Vianez, Jessica; Coca-Pérez, José Luis; Granado-Sánchez, Manuel
En este trabajo estudiamos la cuantificación del riesgo de reserva en seguros no vida con Solvencia II, siendo una prioridad el establecimiento de un método que sea eficiente en sus estimaciones para disminuir el riesgo de insolvencia. Dentro de la metodología estocástica aplicada, analizamos la Distribución Libre de Mack y el método Bootstrap con Simulación, obteniendo que el método Bootstrap con Simulación utilizando el percentil 50 es el más adecuado para el establecimiento del riesgo de reserva.
Fear of COVID-19 Effect on Stock Markets. A Proposal for an Algorithmic Trading System Based on Fear
(MDPI, 2023-06-12) Paule-Vianez, Jessica; Orden-Cruz, Carmen; Gómez-Martínez, Raúl; Escamilla-Solano, Sandra
This study analyzes the fear of COVID-19 effect on European stock market returns. For this purpose, the search volumes (SV) collected by Google Trends (GT) and Wikipedia were used as proxies of fear of COVID-19. In a sample from 13 European stock markets, fear of COVID-19 was found to be associated with negative European stock returns. Our research employed this observation to propose an algorithmic trading system based on fear of COVID-19. Back-testing results show the possibility of extraordinary returns based on this system. These findings have important implications for political authorities, the mass media, and investors.
Generalized regression neuronal networks to predict the value of numismatic assets. Evidence for the walking liberty half dollar
(Elsevier, 2021) Alcázar-Blanco, Antonio Carlos; Paule-Vianez, Jessica; Prado-Román, Miguel; Coca-Pérez, José Luis
Unstable fluctuations in financial markets caused by the 2008 financial crisis and currently by the Covid-19 crisis have generated greater concern among investors regarding their capital protection. In view of this situation, the consideration of alternative investments has taken a relevant position to protect their wealth and obtain profits. Due to the relevance of these investments in these times, this study proposes using artificial intelligence to predict the value of alternative investments, specifically the numismatic asset the Walking Liberty Half Dollar. To achieve this objective, the use of Generalized Regression Neural Networks has been proposed over a sample 25 coins of the Walking Liberty Half Dollar with several qualities valued in the period 2000-2019. Two models were proposed, one for the entire selected sample and the other one for each type of coin depending on its year of minting. Thus, it has been found that the model proposed for the entire sample has a success rate of between 86.12% and 97% while the approach for each type of coin obtained success rates that even reach 100%. The variables that have the greatest influence within the model are the state of conservation of the coin, its age, and its exclusivity. In this way, these results provide fundamental information to investors to understand the behaviour of these assets, and to be able to formulate more profitable investment portfolios, especially in times of great economic instability.
Influence of COVID-induced fear on sovereign bond yield
(Taylor & Francis, 2021-06-07) Paule-Vianez, Jessica; Orden-Cruz, Carmen; Escamilla-Solano, Sandra
There is limited literature exploring the relationship between the sentiment of fear and bond markets. This study analyzes the influence of fear generated by the coronavirus on bond markets, particularly on the yield of sovereign bond debt issued by the G7 countries (Germany, Canada, the United States, France, Italy, Japan, and the United Kingdom). To accomplish this, search volumes compiled by Google Trends on the topic of coronavirus were used as a proxy for COVID-induced fear. The results from applying a panel data approach for the period from 1 January 2020 to 30 December 2020, show that this fear positively impacts the 10-year sovereign bond yield. We show that a one-point increase in COVID-induced fear was associated with an increase in the weekly change in the sovereign bond yield of around 0.0007%. Thus, we found that COVID-induced fear was associated with an increase in country risk perception. These findings have important implications for policymakers by demonstrating the importance of searching a balance between health concerns and impacts on the economy to avoid increasing country risk. In addition, the results obtained show that in times of greater fear of the coronavirus, investors can obtain higher returns by investing in safe assets, such as sovereign bonds.
Influence of Economic Policy Uncertainty on Tourism SME Performance: The Spanish Case
(Taylor & Francis, 2024) Paule-Vianez, Jessica; Orden-Cruz, Carmen; Vélez-Serrano, Daniel
This paper studies the influence of Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) on the performance of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) involved in the Spanish Tourism Sector and analyzes the role that company characteristics can play in this relationship. To achieve this objective, a sample of 5,529 Spanish tourism SMEs has been taken from 2012 to 2020. Applying panel data analysis, it is found that increases in EPU are associated with lower business performance in these companies. Results suggest that SMEs should increase their size, be more flexible and achieve an appropriate balance between indebtedness and liquidity to be more resilient to EPU. The findings present relevant implications for the managers of Spanish tourism SMEs and for economic policymakers.
Managing Perceived Legitimacy in Uncertain Times: The Effects of Long-Covid
(Archivo Digital de la URL, 2023) Miotto, Giorgia; Blanco-González, Alicia; Paule-Vianez, Jessica; Escamilla-Solano, Sandra
Uncertainty and unpredictability are the main characteristics of a crisis: the Covid-19 pandemic was definitely characterised by these two issues. During the Covid-19 pandemic, people experienced a very high level of fear that affected their behaviour in several dimensions of their lives, including their buying habits. Retailing was one of the most affected industries due to government health regulations and people’s fears and emotions. In such tumultuous times, organizational legitimacy plays a crucial role since consumers tend to interact with legitimate organizations, avoiding companies that are not fulfilling their expectations and are not aligned with the accepted social norms. The objective of this research is to understand how uncertainty and crisis may affect consumer behaviour taking into account their emotional conditioning. Specifically, we measured the impact on three different groups of people based on their relationship with the virus: those infected, those uninfected, and those with long-Covid sequelae. We conducted an empirical study in June 2022 on a sample of 515 individuals from the above groups. Our findings revealed that the effects of risk perception and legitimacy are significantly different and that these factors affect individuals purchase intention. The research findings contribute to consumer behaviour theories and offer practical insights for marketing professionals and policymakers in crisis situations.
Método Bootstrap para el cálculo de provisiones técnicas por siniestros
(UPv EHU, 2018) Paule-Vianez, Jessica; Granado-Sánchez, Manuel; Coca-Pérez, José Luis
La adecuada gestión del riesgo es uno de los objetivos fundamentales en las compañías aseguradoras, la buena valoración de la incertidumbre es una de las claves de éxito en este sector empresarial, por ello, abarca el objeto de nuestro estudio. La clave para gestionar la incertidumbre es poder prever los posibles siniestros y así estimar las provisiones técnicas a constituir por la empresa para el pago de estos. La Directiva Europea Solvencia II, que entra en vigor en 2016, modificó sustancialmente la metodología a emplear para la estimación de las provisiones técnicas utilizada con anterioridad. Esta normativa establece una mejor valoración del riesgo para poder afrontar los pagos por siniestros sin tener problemas de insolvencia o escasa liquidez. Adaptándonos a dicha normativa, procedemos a estimar las provisiones técnicas mediante el método Chain Ladder aplicado mediante el formato triangulo, el cual se adapta a la directiva y tiene en cuenta el comportamiento de los pagos por siniestros en diferentes años. Para reducir la incertidumbre en nuestras estimaciones, utilizamos el método Bootstrap con el que determinaremos la fiabilidad de los datos estimando el error. Mediante los datos obtenidos de una compañía aseguradora en su ramo de autos, realizamos hipótesis para determinar la fiabilidad del método de estimación Chain Ladder con Bootstrap, obteniendo que dicha metodología se adecua a la nueva normativa además de demostrar su eficiencia en la estimación de las provisiones técnicas, siendo el percentil 50 el estadístico más adecuado para dicha estimación.
Momentum strategies in times of economic policy uncertainty
(Emerald Publishing Limited, 2021) Paule-Vianez, Jessica; Lobão, Júlio; Gómez-Martínez, Raúl; Prado-Román, Camilo
Purpose – This paper aims to evaluate the influence of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on the momentum effect, analysing its influence depending on the economic cycle and in different quantiles. Design/methodology/approach – To determine the influence of EPU in the momentum effect taking into account the economic cycle and the level of the quantile, linear regression and quantile regression have been applied for the period from 2 January 1985 to 30 April 2019 for the US stock market. Findings – It is shown that an increased feeling of insecurity associated with EPU reduces the momentum effect, especially in times of recession. Distinguishing by quantiles, an asymmetry in the impact of EPU in the momentum effect is discovered, finding that EPU reduces (increases) the profits of momentum strategies in the lowest (highest) quantiles. In the highest quantiles, an investor can obtain higher extraordinary returns with this strategy. For example, in the highest quantile, a one-point increase in the EPU levels would have increased the daily profitability by 12.7 basis points. These findings have important implications for investors and policymakers. Originality/value – To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first paper that evaluates the influence of EPU on the momentum effect by conducting an analysis based on the economic cycle and different quantiles, demonstrating how these factors are relevant in the influence of this uncertainty in the momentum anomaly.
Monetary policy uncertainty and stock market returns: influence of limits to arbitrage and the economic cycle
(Emerald Publishing Limited, 2020) Paule-Vianez, Jessica; Prado-Román, Camilo; Gómez-Martínez, Raúl
Purpose – This paper aims to examine the impact that monetary policy uncertainty (MPU) has on stock market returns by taking into account limits to arbitrage and the economic cycle. Design/methodology/approach – Using four news-based MPU measures, regression models have been applied in this study over a sample period from January 1985 to March 2020. The limits to arbitrage have been considered by taking Russell 1000 Value, Russell 1000 Growth, Russell 2000 Value and Russell 2000 Growth indices, and business cycles were established following the National Bureau of Economic Research. Findings – A negative MPU impact on stock returns has been found. In particular, the most subjective and difficult to arbitrate stocks have been more sensitive to MPU. However, it could not be concluded that MPU has a greater or lesser impact on stock returns depending on the economic cycle. Practical implications – The findings obtained are particularly useful for monetary policymakers showing the importance and need for greater control over the transparency of their decisions to maintain the stability of financial markets. The findings obtained are also useful for investors when selecting their investment assets at times of the highest MPU. Originality/value – To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is one of the few studies investigating the effect of MPU on stock market returns, and the first to analyse this relationship taking into account the economic cycle and limits to arbitrage.