FIAT LUX & Crony CapitalismThe impact of monetary policies & public incentives on the automobile industry in the USA & Europe from 2001 to 2018
This doctoral thesis focuses on evaluating the short-term and long-term effects of monetary and fiscal policies on the US-American & European automotive market in the period from 2001 to 2018, looking at the impact of excessive growth in bank credit, as well as of public interventions such as company bail-outs, scrappage campaigns, and public incentives for alternative fuel vehicles (AFVs). We will use political and economic theory on monetary and fiscal policies, paying particular attention to the Austrian Business Cycle Theory. Consequently, based on the findings of Mises (1940, 1957), methodological dualism and Praxeology, the science of human action, will be applied. We will use deduction in our research to come to general a priori conclusions. Moreover, we will use historic data to illustrate the appropriateness of our theoretical concept in regard to the analyzed events within the mentioned time period. In the first part of the analysis, and by using tools such as capital based macroeconomics and the Hayekian triangle, we will evaluate the general economic effects of expansive monetary policies, referring primarily to the latest subprime-crisis in 2008-2009. The effects of expansive monetary policies and of public interventionism through fiscal policies will be evaluated in regard to their impact on the US-American and European automotive sector in the first decade of the 21st century. The limitations of empiricism are considered in our methodological approach. However, also econometric methodology based on Keeler (2001), Mulligan (2006), as well as Cachanosky & Lewin (2016) is depicted to interpret empiric results and to illustrate the validity of our theory, showing a strong correlation between money supply, interest rates and the stages of productions with the recently seen economic boom and bust cycles. As for fiscal policies, the impact of public incentives such as scrappage campaigns will be critically evaluated. Ultimately, in the final section of our analysis, this thesis will examine the effectiveness of government incentives in promoting alternative fuel vehicles (AFVs) in Europe within the period from 2010 to 2018. Thus, the rather positive sales evolution of AFVs will be analyzed from an economic perspective, detecting whether the seen sales growth was mainly caused by actual customer demand or by governmental policies. The price competitiveness of AFVs will be evaluated, also raising the concern that such significant public incentives may ultimately be unsustainable from a macro-economic perspective, possibly leading to market distortion and a new artificial market bubble. Aiming to connect the dots, we evaluate the hypothesis that the seen expansive monetary policies and protectionist fiscal policies in the first decade of the 21st century were just as unsustainable for the automotive industry, as the recent boom of alternative fuel vehicle sales (mainly caused by public incentives) will be. Consequently, by analyzing the impact of credit expansions as well as of fiscal policies such as scrappage campaigns and public incentives for alternative fuel vehicles, we will explain how monetary and fiscal policies influenced the sales evolution of automotive OEMs in the USA and Europe within the years 2001 to 2018.
Tesis Doctoral leída en la Universidad Rey Juan Carlos de Madrid en 2022. Directores de la Tesis: Philipp Bagus Dra. y Eva María Carrasco Bañuelos
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