dc.contributor.author | Olivares, Alberto | |
dc.contributor.author | Staffetti, Ernesto | |
dc.date.accessioned | 2023-10-11T10:27:06Z | |
dc.date.available | 2023-10-11T10:27:06Z | |
dc.date.issued | 2023 | |
dc.identifier.citation | Alberto Olivares, Ernesto Staffetti, A statistical moment-based spectral approach to the chance-constrained stochastic optimal control of epidemic models, Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Volume 172, 2023, 113560, ISSN 0960-0779, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chaos.2023.113560 | es |
dc.identifier.issn | 0960-0779 | |
dc.identifier.uri | https://hdl.handle.net/10115/24812 | |
dc.description.abstract | This paper presents a spectral approach to the uncertainty management in epidemic models through the
formulation of chance-constrained stochastic optimal control problems. Specifically, a statistical moment-based
polynomial expansion is used to calculate surrogate models of the stochastic state variables of the problem
that allow for the efficient computation of their main statistics as well as their marginal and joint probability
density functions at each time instant, which enable the uncertainty management in the epidemic model.
Moreover, the surrogate models are employed to perform the corresponding sensitivity and risk analyses. The
proposed methodology provides the designers of the optimal control policies with the capability to increase the
predictability of the outcomes by adding suitable chance constraints to the epidemic model and formulating a
proper cost functional. The chance-constrained optimal control of a COVID-19 epidemic model is considered
in order to illustrate the practical application of the proposed methodology. | es |
dc.language.iso | eng | es |
dc.publisher | Elsevier | es |
dc.rights | Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 Internacional | * |
dc.rights.uri | http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ | * |
dc.subject | Arbitrary polynomial chaos | es |
dc.subject | Stochastic optimal control | es |
dc.subject | Chance constraints | es |
dc.subject | Epidemic models | es |
dc.subject | COVID-19 | es |
dc.title | A statistical moment-based spectral approach to the chance-constrained stochastic optimal control of epidemic models | es |
dc.type | info:eu-repo/semantics/article | es |
dc.identifier.doi | 10.1016/j.chaos.2023.113560 | es |
dc.rights.accessRights | info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess | es |