Monetary policy rules and inflation control in the US

Abstract

The interplay between policy-setting by the Federal Reserve and inflation is explored during a period with significant and diverse episodes from 1979 onwards. Our unrestricted estimates reveal a stable target path for the policy rate with a strong response to inflation and an effective control over it. We identify moments of discretionary and rule-based policy-making throughout three different chairmanships and quantify the degree of policy inertia. Including the ‘great recession’ and the first years after the crisis leaves the above-mentioned characteristics unchanged and shows that the adjustment to deviations from the target path becomes less gradual. Replacing the federal funds rate with a shadow rate yields ineffective inflation control, indicating that the dynamic behaviour of inflation is affected by the implementation of unconventional policy when the zero lower bound applies.