Forecasting aviation safety occurrences

dc.contributor.authorFlores, Bruno
dc.contributor.authorRios Insua, David
dc.contributor.authorAlfaro, Cesar
dc.contributor.authorGomez, Javier
dc.date.accessioned2024-12-18T11:59:38Z
dc.date.available2024-12-18T11:59:38Z
dc.date.issued2022-06-17
dc.description.abstractWe present a general framework for aviation safety occurrence forecasting. This is a major component of a methodology for aviation safety risk management at national level. It covers novel models as well as novel combinations of earlier models. Having good quality occurrence and severity forecasting models is paramount to properly manage risks, maintain the confidence of its users and preserve the status of aviation as a safe transportation mode. The problem is involved due to the presence of complex effects like seasonality, trends, or stress that impact the rates of various occurrences and the uncertainty about future number of operations.
dc.identifier.citationFlores, B., Rios Insua, D., Alfaro, C., & Gomez, J. (2022). Forecasting aviation safety occurrences. Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry, 38(3), 545-567. doi: 10.1002/asmb.2675
dc.identifier.doi10.1002/asmb.2675
dc.identifier.issn1526-4025
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10115/43177
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherJohn Wiley & Sons Ltd.
dc.rightsAttribution-NonCommercial 4.0 Internationalen
dc.rights.accessRightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/
dc.subjectaviation safety
dc.subjectBayesian forecasting
dc.subjectdynamic models
dc.subjectnonhomogeneous Poisson models
dc.titleForecasting aviation safety occurrences
dc.typeArticle

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