Forecasting aviation safety occurrences
dc.contributor.author | Flores, Bruno | |
dc.contributor.author | Rios Insua, David | |
dc.contributor.author | Alfaro, Cesar | |
dc.contributor.author | Gomez, Javier | |
dc.date.accessioned | 2024-12-18T11:59:38Z | |
dc.date.available | 2024-12-18T11:59:38Z | |
dc.date.issued | 2022-06-17 | |
dc.description.abstract | We present a general framework for aviation safety occurrence forecasting. This is a major component of a methodology for aviation safety risk management at national level. It covers novel models as well as novel combinations of earlier models. Having good quality occurrence and severity forecasting models is paramount to properly manage risks, maintain the confidence of its users and preserve the status of aviation as a safe transportation mode. The problem is involved due to the presence of complex effects like seasonality, trends, or stress that impact the rates of various occurrences and the uncertainty about future number of operations. | |
dc.identifier.citation | Flores, B., Rios Insua, D., Alfaro, C., & Gomez, J. (2022). Forecasting aviation safety occurrences. Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry, 38(3), 545-567. doi: 10.1002/asmb.2675 | |
dc.identifier.doi | 10.1002/asmb.2675 | |
dc.identifier.issn | 1526-4025 | |
dc.identifier.uri | https://hdl.handle.net/10115/43177 | |
dc.language.iso | en | |
dc.publisher | John Wiley & Sons Ltd. | |
dc.rights | Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International | en |
dc.rights.accessRights | info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess | |
dc.rights.uri | http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/ | |
dc.subject | aviation safety | |
dc.subject | Bayesian forecasting | |
dc.subject | dynamic models | |
dc.subject | nonhomogeneous Poisson models | |
dc.title | Forecasting aviation safety occurrences | |
dc.type | Article |
Archivos
Bloque original
1 - 1 de 1
Cargando...
- Nombre:
- Appl Stoch Models Bus Ind - 2022 - Flores - Forecasting aviation safety occurrences.pdf
- Tamaño:
- 3.2 MB
- Formato:
- Adobe Portable Document Format
Bloque de licencias
1 - 1 de 1
No hay miniatura disponible
- Nombre:
- license.txt
- Tamaño:
- 2.96 KB
- Formato:
- Item-specific license agreed upon to submission
- Descripción: