Russia–Ukraine crisis: China’s Belt Road Initiative at the crossroads

Abstract

China’s Belt Road Initiative (BRI) is an ambitious programme to connect Asia with Europe, Africa, and Latin America via transport networks on land and sea in hopes of advancing economic integration, increasing trade, and stimulating growth. Ukraine occupies a strategic location in the BRI, near the intersection of Europe and Asia, rendering it a potential “gateway to Europe.” Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is having a disruptive effect and poses numerous challenges for the Initiative, as it has affected some of the pillars and overall goals of the BRI. As it stands, however, infrastructure connectivity is being set back by three developments: fewer funding options, less international cooperation, and geopolitical shocks. Second, unimpeded trade via the BRI is being affected as the war causes disruptions to global value chains, weakens free trade, and sharpens food and energy insecurity. But where there are risks, there are also potential favourable circumstances for the BRI, including opportunities for China to get involved in the reconstruction of a war-ravaged Ukraine.